Meda Al Rowas - IHS Jane's Intelligence Weekly
The attack on Mukalla's commercial port marks the first boat-borne attack targeting the coalition since the start of the conflict.
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has expressly threatened the UAE following the group's expulsion from Mukalla in April 2016. The frequency of IED, shooting, and suicide attacks targeting security checkpoints in Mukalla have increased steadily since then.
Commercial ports and airports in Aden and Mukalla, and coalition warships, coastguard, and logistics vessels are likely targets for jihadists in southern Yemen. There is a considerably lower risk of successful attacks on coalition-controlled oil export terminals in Aden or Ash Shihr, east of Mukalla, used for military, commercial, and humanitarian aid deliveries. UN-commissioned humanitarian aid vessels remain an unlikely target for AQAP, although the risk of misidentification, or deliberate targeting of such vessels by the Islamic State, is elevated.